STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- The majority of polls conducted after the first 2024 presidential debate show Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in the race for the White House.
A post-debate snap poll conducted by CNN found that roughly two-thirds of viewers, 67%, felt Trump outperformed Biden during the first debate, though 95% said the debate would not change their vote in the upcoming election.
Since then, more polls have been conducted by various organizations, with the nearly all of them showing respondents favoring Trump, with the exception of one poll where the two were tied.
Here’s a look at some of the most recent poll results, as of Wednesday, July 3.
MORNING CONSULT
A Morning Consult poll, which includes responses from 10,679 registered voters between June 28 and June 30, found that if the election were held today, 44% would vote for Trump, 43% would vote for Biden, 8% would vote for someone else and 5% didn’t know who they would vote for.
Among Democrats, 87% said they would vote for Biden, 5% for Trump, 5% for someone else and 3% didn’t know.
Among Republicans, 89% said they would vote for Trump, 5% for Biden, 4% for someone else and 2% didn’t know.
With both parties overwhelmingly supporting their respective candidates, independent voters could swing the election, with 37% currently favoring Trump, 33% favoring Biden, 18% favoring someone else and 12% unsure of their vote.
HARVARD-HARRIS
A Harvard-Harris poll, which includes responses from 2,090 registered voters between June 28 and June 30, found Trump leading Biden by multiple points.
If the election were held today, 47% of respondents said they would vote for Trump, while 41% said they would vote for Biden and 12% were unsure.
Among Democrats, 82% said they would for Biden, 8% said they would vote for Trump and 10% were unsure.
Among Republicans, 92% said they would for Trump, 5% said they would vote for Biden and 3% were unsure.
Among independent voters, 42% said they would vote for Trump, 32% said they would vote for Biden and 26% were unsure.
CNN
A CNN poll, which includes responses from 1,045 registered voters between June 28 and June 30, also showed Trump leading by a six-point margin, with 49% saying they would vote for Trump, 43% saying they would vote for Biden, 4% saying they would vote for another candidate and 4% saying they don’t plan to vote.
Among those favoring Biden, roughly 63% said their decision was more of a vote against Trump than a vote for Biden.
Meanwhile, among those favoring Trump, only 34% said their decision was more of a vote against Biden, while 66% said it was more about voting for Trump.
Roughly 73% of respondents said their minds were already made up in regards to who they would be voting for, but 27% could still be swayed before election day.
YAHOO NEWS
A Yahoo News poll, which includes responses from 1,171 registered voters between June 28 and July 1, shows Trump leading Biden by a 2-point margin.
If the election were held today, 45% said they would vote for Trump, 43% said they would vote for Biden, 7% said they were not sure who they would vote for and 5% said they wouldn’t vote, if they were only given the choice between the two.
When adding in other potential candidates, Trump’s lead grows to four points, with 44% saying they would vote for Trump, 40% saying they would vote for Biden, 10% saying they would vote for another candidate, 3% unsure who they would vote for and 2% choosing not to cast ballots.
When asked to forecast the ultimate results, 45% said they felt Trump had a better chance of winning the election, while 25% felt Biden had a better chance and 30% said they weren’t sure.
REUTERS/IPSOS
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, which includes responses from 1,070 registered voters between July 1 and July 2, shows the candidates deadlocked, with both receiving support from 40% of respondents.
Despite the close matchup, nearly one in three Democrats said they believe Biden should end his reelection bid following an underwhelming performance in the first presidential debate.
However, all other potential Democratic nominees offered by the survey trailed Trump in a hypothetical matchup with the exception of former First Lady Michelle Obama, who led Trump 50% to 39% in a scenario in which she elects to run.
CBS NEWS
A CBS News poll, which includes responses from 2,826 likely voters between June 28 and July 2, shows Trump leading Biden by two percentage points nationally, 50% to 48%, and by three percentage points in battleground states, 51% to 48%.
The sentiments of voters in the battleground states, which will be of extreme importance in the upcoming election, had been in Biden’s favor last month by a slim, one-point margin, 50% to 49%, but have now flipped in favor of Trump following the first debate.
Battleground states are those most likely to decide the upcoming election and include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
STATEN ISLAND ADVANCE/SILIVE.COM
The Staten Island Advance/SILive.com surveyed readers following the first presidential debate to see where borough residents stood on the upcoming election.
The first question, which asked readers who they were likely to vote for, drew 86 responses, of which 67% said they would likely vote for Trump, 14% said they would likely vote for Biden, 7% said they were uncertain who they would vote for, 7% said they were unlikely to vote and 5% said they were likely to vote for a third-party candidate.
The second question, which asked readers whether they felt the candidates were too old to lead, drew 89 responses, of which 72% said Biden seemed too old, 26% said they both seemed too old and 2% said Trump deemed too old.
The third question, which asked readers who they felt won the debate, drew 103 responses, of which 75% felt Trump won the debate, 23% felt neither won the debate and 2% felt Biden won the debate.
2024 Election Data stories
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